KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area
Press Release
Past Press Releases
KOF MPC August 5, 2010.
KOF MPC July 8, 2010.
KOF MPC June 10, 2010.
KOF MPC May 6, 2010.
KOF MPC April 8, 2010.
KOF MPC March 4, 2010.
KOF MPC February 4, 2010.
KOF MPC January 14, 2010.
KOF MPC December 3, 2009.
KOF MPC November 5, 2009.
KOF MPC October 8, 2009.
KOF MPC September 3, 2009.
KOF MPC August 6, 2009.
KOF MPC July 2, 2009.
KOF MPC June 4, 2009.
KOF MPC May 7, 2009.
KOF MPC April 2, 2009.
KOF MPC March 5, 2009.
KOF MPC February 5, 2009.
KOF MPC January 15, 2009.
KOF MPC December 4, 2008.
KOF MPC November 6, 2008.
KOF MPC October 2, 2008.
KOF MPC September 4, 2008.
KOF MPC August 7, 2008.
KOF MPC July 3, 2008.
KOF MPC June 5, 2008.
KOF MPC May 8, 2008.
KOF MPC April 10, 2008.
KOF MPC March 6, 2008.
KOF MPC February 7, 2008.
KOF MPC January 10, 2008.
KOF MPC December 6, 2007.
KOF MPC November 8, 2007.
Publication Dates 2010
Jan 14, Feb 4, Mar 4, April 8, May 6, June 10, July 8, Aug 5, Sep 2, Oct 7, Nov 4, Dec 2.
A new Indicator for Measuring ECB Communication
The new KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area (KOF MPC) provides a quantitative measure of ECB communication. It translates the ECB president’s statements concerning risks to price stability as made during the monthly press conference into an index. By aggregating forward-looking statements concerning price stability, the KOF MPC contains information about the future path of ECB monetary policy. It anticipates changes in the main refinancing rate by two to three months. Since Nov 8, 2007, the indicator is published on the day of the Governing Council meeting at 17.30 CET.
Download the full announcement with further details here.
Design und Construction of KOF MPC
The KOF MPC is based on a quantification of the statements of the ECB president made during the monthly press conference. The coding of the statements is provided by Media Tenor, a media research institute (http://www.mediatenor.de). As the ECB raises and cuts interest rates to ensure price stability in the medium run, the indicator is based on statements which reveal the Governing Council’s assessment of developments which directly affect “future price stability”. The KOF MPC is constructed as follows. First, the balance between statements implying that there are upside risks to price stability and those that refer to downside risks is calculated. Second, this balance is then divided by all statements with regard to “future price stability”. Although all the sections of the introductory statement enter into the index, statements from the section on price developments appear to be most relevant. This is in line with research which has shown that forward-looking statements related to price developments are most informative to predict future interest rates.
Click here for supplementary information on the database.
Data
Download the full time series of KOF MPC in .csv-format here.
Papers
Christian Conrad and Michael J. Lamla (2010), "The High-Frequency Response of the EUR-US Dollar Exchange Rate to ECB Monetary Policy Announcements", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming
Jan-Egbert Sturm and Jakob de Haan (2009): "Does Central Bank Communication Really Lead to Better Forecasts of Policy Decisions? New Evidence Based on a Taylor Rule Model for the ECB", KOF Working Paper 236.
Aleš Bulíř, Martin Čihák and Kateřina Šmídková (2008): "Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication", IMF Working paper 08/252.
Jakob de Haan, (2008), "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, 3(4), 375-398.
Contact information
KOF Swiss Economic InstitutePhone +41 44 632 38 19
Fax +41 44 632 12 18
http://www.kof.ethz.ch
communicator@kof.ethz.ch
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